2nd Quarter Real GDP Is Going To Come In At Over 4%!

The 2nd Quarter is setting up to be a monster for real GDP!

From the article linked above:

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Personal Income and Outlays report shows wages and salaries gained for the fifth straight month. Personal income increased by an estimated $47.8 billion (0.3 percent) in March.

Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $39.8 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $61.7 billion (0.4%).

From the article linked above:

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose slightly by 0.2 to 57.6 in April, up from 57.4 in March and ending a 3-month long downward trend.

Nevertheless, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said business activity continued to rise at a solid pace in April, with growth in firms’ operations up for the first time this year.

From the article linked above:

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) ticked up for the second straight month (0.4%), rising 0.4% to 107.6 in March from 107.2.

“Healthy economic conditions are creating considerable demand for purchasing a home, but not all buyers are able to sign contracts because of the lack of choices in inventory,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said.

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Folks This Is Beyond WINNING! This Day Will Live In Infamy….

Where do we begin on this day! We have the news heard around the world about the North and South Korea Summit and the outcomes from it.

We have the House Intel Report and the following from it:

“While the Committee found no evidence that the Trump campaign colluded, coordinated, or conspired with the Russian government the investigation did find poor judgment and ill-considered actions by the Trump AND CLINTON campaigns”

Bloomberg decided to KILL some more Liberals with the following reality this morning:

For me, the Economic News is beyond astounding because MAGAnomics is beginning to show up everywhere you look!

From the article linked above:

The Survey of Consumers, a closely-watched gauge of consumer sentiment, improved from initial estimates in April and the 2018 average is the highest in 18 years. The Index of Consumer Sentiment rose from initial estimates to 98.8, though that’s still slightly down from the enormously strong March reading of 101.4.

Current Economic Conditions came in at 114.9 and the Index of Consumer Expectations improved to 88.4.

 

From the article linked above:

The U.S. economy grew at a stronger-than-expect pace in the first-quarter (1Q) 2018, according to the “advance” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 2.3% after increasing by 2.9% in 4Q 2017.

THIS IS HUGE:

Real disposable personal income rose 3.4% after gaining 1.1% in the previous quarter.

Personal saving was $462.1 billion in 1Q, which compares with a $379.8 billion gain in 4Q. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — came in at 3.1% in 1Q after a smaller 4Q 2.6% rise.

1st Quarter Real GDP Will Be Released Tomorrow! I Am Predicting 2.2% but Also Stating Final Revision In June Will Be 2.7% & Here Is Why….

The Atlanta Federal Reserve put out their final prediction for the 1st Quarter real GDP that will be made available to the public tomorrow morning at 8:30 am.

You can find the release at the link below:

https://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Keep in mind it will be revised for a 2nd time on Wednesday, May 30th and for a final time on Thursday, June 28th.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is predicting 2.0% real GDP for the 1st Quarter.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

However, the NY Federal Reserve made their final prediction on April 20th and are predicting 2.9% real GDP for the 1st Quarter.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast.html

There was some really good data released today about our trade deficit in the month of March.

From the article linked above:

Trade gap sinks to $68 billion in March, down 10.3% from $75.9 billion in prior month.

This was the first narrowing of the deficit in seven months and came in well below the $73.4 billion estimate of economists polled by MarketWatch.

Trade had been expected to be a drag on first-quarter growth because of the jump in imports in January and February, but the sharp narrowing of the deficit in March means that it will at least be much less of a negative.

VERY IMPORTANT

“If we’re right, GDP forecasts for the first quarter will be revised up by about half a percentage point.”

From the article linked above:

  • Analysts project growth of 2% after fourth quarter’s 2.9%
  • Rebound expected in coming months as tax cuts take hold

I would not be surprised if the initial release tomorrow comes in at 2.2% real GDP.

However, given the fact that we cut the deficit in our trade imbalance in March by 10.3%, we will see a final real GDP of 2.7% for the 1st Quarter of 2018. Once again that final release will occur on Thursday, June 28th.

Last year the 1st Quarter (2017) real GDP finalized at 1.2%. The initial release had real GDP for the 1st Quarter at 0.8%. BHO was still in office for 20 days in January of the 1st Quarter.

Our President was only able to begin MAGANomics by starting to cut regulations and beginning to expand the Energy Sector.

The Blue Wave 🌊 Is Such A Complete Myth! Liberals & the MSM Are Going To Be Shocked After the November Election 🗳

Excellent article that takes the most liberal polls and shows why the Blue Wave 🌊 is a myth! By the way, Republican enthusiasm to vote come November has overtaken the Democrats!

From the article linked above:

A trove of new polling shows the once-formidable lead Democrats had in the generic congressional ballot is nearly gone.

Wedge issues, such as gun control and immigration, are not working in Democrats’ favor. In fact, thanks to Trump even independent voters believe Democrats are using the children of illegal immigrants for political purposes rather than legitimately protecting their welfare.

In a Washington Post-ABC News poll released Monday, voter preference in the November election only shows a four-point lead for Democrats, of 47 percent to 43 percent among registered voters. This is a drastic drop from a 13-point advantage Democrats had at the end of last year.

There is no “enthusiasm gap” for Democrats. In fact, Republicans now seem more motivated to vote in November: 86 percent of Republicans say they are absolutely or certain to vote this fall, compared to 81 percent of Democrats.

An NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll also indicates waning support for Democrats. The poll showed a big drop in the percentage of voters who want Democrats to win in order to keep tabs on Trump and the GOP. In October 2017, 46 percent said yes, they want Democrats to keep the president and Congress in check. Last week, only 40 percent agreed with that statement.

A detailed Quinnipiac University poll portends trouble for Democrats on both congressional preference and key issues. By a margin of only three points, voters want Democrats to win control of the House and Senate this year. That slim gap is within the margin of error, so it’s fair to say it’s a tie. Sixty percent of voters rate the economy as excellent or good (a slight decrease since the beginning of the year) and all voters—even Democrats—credit Trump, not Obama, with the current economy.

Gun control and immigration, two hot-button issues the Democrats usually exploit to drive turn-out, might be backfiring on them. Even tariffs on Chinese goods aren’t as unpopular as Democrats and some Republicans had hoped.

The Democrats might live to regret their focus on the plight of illegal immigrants instead of on legal Americans. Nearly three-quarters agree that illegal immigration from Mexico is a serious problem and a majority support sending National Guard troops to secure the southern border.

In perhaps the most surprising result in the Quinnipiac poll, voters are split on whether Chinese imports should be hit with Trump’s proposed tariffs, even though 68 percent think a trade war with China is a bad idea. The ABC poll asked an oddly worded question—“Do you think this situation [tariffs] will be good or bad for jobs in the United States?”—and less than half thought it would be bad.

Democrats need to take 24 seats from Republicans while keeping every one of their own seats to win back control of the House. The Senate map is not only hostile to Democrats, but elections in Trump-won states could lead to a larger majority for Republicans.

Democrats seem nervous this week; their swagger is gone. Both the Washington Post and Politico had stories Tuesday about who will replace House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi if she doesn’t win back the speaker’s gavel. (Rep. Joe Crowley of New York seems to be making his move.)

If Trump can hold it together, the Robert Mueller probe continues to lose support among Americans, the economy chugs along, and we look tough abroad, Republicans can keep control of the House until the next presidential election. At least for now, it appears that the hundreds of political influencers who bet Trump would “ruin” the GOP and cause massive losses this November were dead flat wrong.

Never In My Right Mind Did I Think The Korean War Would End Before Demilitarization! Now Both Are GUARANTEED……

I have been saying for the past 4 months that not only will North Korea denuclearize, but they will sign a declaration ending the Korean War! Never in my right mind did I think the end of the war would happen first but that is exactly what is happening folks. UNBELIEVABLE!

Our President will enter the conversation of being one of the top 5 Presidents by the close of this calendar year. That is after two of eight years of his presidency. He has a chance of going down in history as the best President this country has ever had. George Washington will be difficult but the sky is the limit for PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP!

https://twitter.com/PoliticalShort/status/986261314229100544

From the article linked above:

South and North Korea are discussing plans to announce an official end to the military conflict between the two countries that are still technically at war, the Munhwa Ilbo newspaper reported, citing an unidentified South Korean official.

No peace treaty has been signed to replace the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War, and the U.S. and North Korea have been at loggerheads since formal hostilities ended. A successful summit between Moon and Kim could pave the way for a meeting between Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump — the first between a sitting American president and a North Korean leader.

“Ending the state of conflict is the core of the whole thing. Peace is as complicated as denuclearization,” said John Delury, an associate professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University in Seoul. “There also has to be a process of actually delivering the peace.”

One way to resolve the conflict could involve returning the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone to its original state, the Munhwa Ilbo newspaper said.

We may actually see the day, Rocket Man is wearing a MAGA hat!

When You Hit The Point Of Diminishing Returns, You Are DEAD! Democrats Have Hit That Point & The Data Is Beginning To Swing BIGLY……

I spoke about the fact that the Democrats, Mueller, Comey, MSM etc. have hit a Point of Diminishing Returns. Every new action or attack will only build our President’s approval and more importantly allow Republicans to hold onto the House and gain 5 to 7 seats in the Senate. The changes in polling numbers over the past month and a half have been brutal for the Democrats.

From the article linked above:

Despite constant attacks by the liberal media President Trump now holds a 51% approval rating according to the latest Rasmussen poll.

A recent study found that 90% of the left-wing media coverage of President Trump was negative in 2017.

Barack Obama had a 47% approval rating on April 16, 2010 despite having around 90% favorability from the liberal media.

From the article linked above:

A 10-point Democratic lead among all adults narrows to 4 points among registered voters and 5 points among those who say they’re both registered and certain to vote; neither of those is statistically significant. In January, by contrast, Democrats held similar margins in all three groups – 13, 12 and 15 points, respectively.

Self-reported registration is one indicator as it is less a measure of actual registration than of political engagement. The share of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who report being registered to vote has slipped from 84 percent in November to 79 percent in January and 75 percent now. That contrasts with 87 percent among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, up slightly from 82 percent three months ago.

Further, among Republican likely voters, 95 percent say they would vote for their party’s candidate, which is up from 89 percent in January and now matches the level among Democrats, 95 percent.

Voter Registration Update In Battleground States! Numbers Continue To Improve For Republicans…..

Larry Schweikart has provided an update on Voter Registration Changes from the Battleground States!

*Note: Voter numbers rise/fall monthly: in most cases both parties fall prior to the “hot” election time. These numbers are NET gains or losses. He cannot track voter registrations in states that do not register by party. These include VA, OH, GA, MI, MN, TX and WI.

**All numbers measured against Nov. 2016

AZ: For the first time since Nov. 2016, Democrats failed to increase. Republicans have increased every month. Republicans currently have gained 28,000 gross, but have a net 29,000 advantage.

CO: Still holding at Republicans minus -1,000. Interestingly, Independents are off big, minus -161 since Nov. 2016.

DE: Still holding at Republicans minus -1,000 and no real movement for several months.

FL: Republicans net plus +78,000 after a couple of months of slowing down. The Republican advantage since Nov. 2016 has accelerated.

IA: Republicans net plus +11,000 since Nov. 2017. Republicans already held a big advantage in 2016, now have a net 48,000 edge in registrations.

ME: Republicans minus -1,000. Virtually no change. Both parties lost about 10,000 off the rolls. This can be a PDJT state in 2020 but Republicans have to dig in.

NH: Republicans net plus +7,000. Still a good gain, but down just slightly from plus +8,400 late last year.

NC: Republicans net plus +70,000. Another state where Republicans are steady or gaining since Nov. 2016.

NM: Republicans plus +11,000. Democrats gained 1,000 back since Feb 2018 but nonetheless this is an important gain for Republicans. Still a ways to go to overcome the Democrat advantage but this moves NM into tossup territory if trends hold for 2020.

NV: Republicans net plus +38,000. Big movement! Nevada Democrats have lost a whopping 38,000 off their rolls since Nov. 2016.

PA: Republicans net plus +82,000. Significant improvement since 2016; slipped some from high of +105,000 in mid-2017. Democrats continue to lose voters in PA, down in real numbers of 127,000 since 2012.

CONCLUSION: No battleground state that PDJT won has seen an improvement in the net voter registration changes since Nov. 2016 for Democrats. There have been HUGE improvements for Republicans (NC, IA, FL, PA and AZ). Right now he would take NH in addition to his 306 Electoral Votes from 2016. NM and NV are too close to call. PDJT’s margins in NC, PA and FL would be much larger.

In states PDJT lost (CO, DE, ME) there have been extremely minor changes. In both AZ and IA, red states, the Republican majorities have grown (so much for “Muh Blue Wave” in AZ). FL is within range of being a red state by 2020, or dead even.

Democrats, MSM, etc. Have Hit the Point Of Diminishing Returns! Everything They Do Is Causing Our President’s Approval To Rise……

 

 

There was a sentence from the article linked above that made me so happy when I read it:

“No doubt the Democrats’ constant attacks, amplified every day by the press, have an effect. But at a minimum, diminishing returns seem to have set in.”

Here is my post that I have shared on multiple threads on the http://www.theconservativetreehouse.com:

Treepers don’t allow the stories the media are going to run with get to you. The reason I say that is because every single story, every single raid, every single arrest is putting the final nail in the Democrat and MSM coffins!

I was an Economic Major in College. I learned about how companies hit what is called a Point of Diminishing Returns.

They shared an example of a small farm. With 4 workers they made X profit. With a 5th worker the profits increased. The same after hiring a 6th worker. However, when the hired the 7th worker, their profits stayed the same. They assumed that an 8th worker would allow the profits to continue to increase. It actually caused the profits to diminish. They wanted to reverse that trend so they hired a 9th worker. Regrettably they lost even more profits. By the 10th worker, they were no longer making a profit.

Lucifer (McCain), Comey, Mueller (if he decides to write a book) means ABSOLUTELY CRAP 💩 because they hit their Point of Diminishing Returns!

We and our President will reap the benefits!

Here is the proof from actual different polls over the past month and a half:

 

Firing Mueller Would Be A Big Mistake Before the Midterm Election 🗳 In November!

Our President was absolutely right that among his base as well as those Independents, there are 65%+ of Americans that are feeling the Cold Anger. The Democrats worse nightmare is him NOT firing Mueller.

That was Jim Acosta from CNN that asked that question. He needed to get our President on the record. If Mueller is still going come November, the MONSTER VOTE will be overwhelming. Our President will have Americans at the polls in record numbers. If Mueller were to be fired before November, the opposite would occur. The MONSTER VOTE will see it as protecting our President by giving him a larger majority in the House as well as the Senate.

The NYT’s is warning their followers!

From the article linked above:

As Republican leaders scramble to stave off a Democratic wave or at least mitigate their party’s losses in November, a strategy is emerging on the right for how to energize conservatives and drive a wedge between the anti-Trump left and moderate voters: warn that Democrats will immediately move to impeach President Trump if they capture the House.

Then there is the most prominent Republican to have started invoking the specter of a Democratic-controlled House impeaching Mr. Trump: the president himself. In just the last month, he has used three separate speeches to warn that Representative Maxine Waters, a veteran California Democrat he has casually insulted as a “low-I.Q. individual,” aims to impeach him.

Advisers to the president say they have made clear to him that Republican control of the House is tenuous, and some have encouraged him to more aggressively lay out the stakes for the midterm elections, including who exactly would be in charge of key committees should Democrats retake the chamber.

HERE IS THE REALITY I REFERENCED ABOVE:

Polls show most voters are not supportive of impeachment at the moment, but if Mr. Trump were to fire the White House special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, the country would become about evenly divided on the question.